|
US Jobs Data on Tap Ahead. Daily outlook - 3rd February 2012
US Jobs Data on Tap Ahead
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the sentiment remained positive in the markets overnight but little happened in the market overnight with traders still waiting on final details if the Greece debt deal and the major risk event of the week in the market the January US Non-Farm Payrolls is ahead on Friday. Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 367k vs. 375k previously. In US stocks, DJIA -11 points closing at 12705, S&P +1 points closing at 1325 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2859k. Looking ahead, January US Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 170k vs. 212k previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD traded in a relatively tight range between 1.3100 and 1.3175 supported on the back of positive Spanish Bond Auctions. The market is waiting final details on the Greece debt deal expected today for next direction before the US jobs data impacts the major via the USD component. Looking ahead, January PMI Services forecast 50.5 vs. 50.5 previously. Also ahead, December Retail Sales forecast at -1.3% vs. 2.5% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY went to sleep in a 10 pip range as the market consolidate and the crosses got very little direction from the quiet stocks markets. The US Jobs data has the potential to move the pair as the critical piece of data will highlight the health of the US economic recovery. Support is seen under Y76 and intervention was done at Y75.30 last year by the BOJ.
The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was also in consolidation mode stick to a 50 pip range supported at the 1.5850 level as well and will be looking to fresh inspiration from the Greece and the US data tonight. The EUR/GBP is pivoting the 0.8300 level and is an important cross to gauge the relative strength of the Pound. Looking ahead, January PMI services forecast at 53.5 vs. 54 previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD followed the same theme trading in a 50 pip range above the 1.0700 level and the consolidating the rally. Further stock market gains tonight on the back of strong US jobs numbers would be needed to move the Aussie to the next level.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold extended the rally to $1760 and consolidated just under the level. Oil is under heavy pressure after breaking the $98.50 bottom of the recent range and extended falls to $96 overnight.
Pairs to watch
OIL/USD breaking down technically
EUR/CHF SNB has to act soon to protect 1.2000 target
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2931
|
1.3000
|
1.3145
|
1.3244
|
1.3386
|
|
USD/JPY
|
75.35
|
76.00
|
76.20
|
77.49
|
77.82
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5517
|
1.5642
|
1.5825
|
1.5889
|
1.5932
|
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0428
|
1.0573
|
1.0695
|
1.0753
|
1.1007
|
|
XAU/USD
|
1700.00
|
1726
|
1757
|
1763
|
1790
|
|
OIL/USD
|
92.50
|
95.00
|
96.50
|
97.00
|
98.50
|
Euro – 1.3145
Initial support at 1.3000 (Big Figure Support) followed by 1.2931 (Jan25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3244 (38.2% retrace of 1.4247-1.2624) followed by 1.3386 (Dec 12 high)
Yen – 76.20
Initial support is located at 76.00 (big figure) followed by 75.35 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 77.49 (Jan 27) followed by 77.82 (Jan 26 high).
Pound – 1.5825
Initial support at 1.5642 (Jan 27 low) followed by 1.5517 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5889 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1.5932 (Nov 15 high).
Australian Dollar – 1.0695
Initial support at 1.0573 (Jan 23 high) followed by the 1.0428 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0765 (Sept 1 high) followed by 1.1007 (Aug 2 high).
Gold – 1757
Initial support at 1700 (Big figure resistance) followed by 1681 (Jan 23 high). Initial resistance is now at 1763 (Dec 2 high) followed by 1790 (former trendline support drawn off Oct 20 low).
Oil – 96.50
Initial support at 97.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone
| 
