EUR/USD

The RSI indicator broke the trend’s rising line, at the moment we should expect the EUR/USD currency pair to fall down. The closest target of the fall is the support level in the area of 1.3055. One can consider opening short positions with the tight stop above 1.3215.

GBP/USD

Pound continues moving inside the rising channel. Judging by the price structure, we should expect the price to break the channel’s lower border and fall down. The closest target is the area of 1.5640, the next one - 1.5556. One can consider aggressive sales with the tight stop, and increase the amount of short positions only after the price leaves the channel.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF currency pair was supported by the test of the channel’s lower border at the RSI, we should expect it to rebound from the border and start moving upwards. The closest target of the growth is the area of 0.9931, one can consider buying the pair with the tight stop. If the pair breaks the channel’s lower border at the price chart, this case scenario will be cancelled.

DOLLAR INDEX

At the daily chart of Dollar Index the RSI indicator is still testing the support line. We should expect both Dollar Index and American Dollar to grow from the current levels. The closest resistance level is in the area of 83.00.

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly upward on Friday; however activity in the pair is low.  Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and came into the positive area; however trades are sluggish and along the line; there is no a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator came out of the overbought zone and started to give a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat 1.5810, the pair will go to 1.5800 and 1.5780. A chance is high that thepair will consolidate at the current levels.

According to estimates of the National Institute of Economic Research NIESR, British economy will lose 0.1% this year; how everin 2013 will resume its growth up to 2.3%. Situation with the households, that have a lot of debts and are not willing to spend money because of obscure economic outlooks, acts as a "hindrance" for the system. In addition, labor market also of importance, the Institute predicts that unemployment rate in 2012 will be over 9%. There is probability that inflation will drop to 2.2% from the current 4%, CPI can be at 1.4% in 2013.

We would remind that complex situation preserves in the labour sector. According to estimates, unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Situation is similar In the retail sector as well.

Realty in Britain is decreasing in price, according to Nationwide report, prices went down by 0.2% m/m in January, the decrease lasts for the second consecutive month. Although the data agreed with the forecast of economists, this fact is not very cheering. Thus, inflation in prices for houses in the country is really slowing down. We shall not fail to take into consideration that sharp changes in sentiments are obvious in the housing sector. This sector can show sideways trend in the coming months

It became known yesterday that consumer confidence index GfK rose to -29 points in January against the level of -33points in December. This is the record index since summer 2011 and is definitely very positive. According to the head of the Bank of England Mr.King, decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.

The pair EUR/USD is traded slightly downward at the Forex currency market on Friday morning. By 8.25 MSK the Euro is at 1.3129 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3144.

So, there have not been any new drivers inthe market, while investors have already made use of the existing ones and incorporated them into prices. Players are getting bored: Greece continues todelay the progress of negotiations with private capital, changing the deadline for taking decisions and European leaders refrain from making comments.

The data on the U.S. employment sector, whichis going to be released tonight, will be of interest- despite the fact that ADP index did not agree with the forecasts, investors hope that the data will bestrong.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not gobeyond the range of 1.3090-1.3180 at the trading session on Friday.

The United Kingdom (U.K.) reported today that construction activity depreciated in the country. According to the Markit, purchasing managers index (P.M.I.) for the sector output lowered from 53.2 in December to 51.4 in January. Yet, the December index fell lower than economists’ 52.5 projections. For the sector, commercial activity increased but was negated by activity reductions in the civil engineering and housing areas. Construction companies were increasingly optimistic for January indicating that new orders and output had picked up. The greater than 50 P.M.I. can be attributed to increases in business confidence with the expectations for the sub-index to increase to 66.1 January from 57.6 in December. Manufacturing makes up 10.0% of the country’s gross domestic product (G.D.P.) while construction partakes in about 7.5% of it. As the service sector makes up the majority of G.D.P. economists are looking forward to their index release Friday.

In other news, the United States (U.S.) Labor Department reported today that first time unemployment benefit claims lowered 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 count. Additionally, the four week average calculated to 375,750, less than the previous four week figure. The four week low is the second lowest seen since June 2008 below the 375,000 mark that typically indicates hiring is high enough to reduce unemployment. With the news, economists are expecting employment numbers will have increased 155,000 and unemployment will stay at 8.5% in January. The job market has a lot of progress to make as more 13 million individuals remain unemployed.

The GBPUSD has rallied over 600 pips since hitting a low of 1.5250 on January 13^th. The pair has hit resistance at 1.5880 which was the high established on 18^th November. If we hear more positive news out of Europe and the GBPUSD breaks above 1.5900, we expect the pair to target 1.6100. On the other hand if the situation in Europe continues to get worse we expect the pair to settle near 1.5600 in the medium term.

Swiss bulls stand at the ready for an SNB intervention. Speculation is rife that it will come soon and recent data pointing to a slowing down of the Swiss economy may hasten the decision. Yesterday, it was reported that the pace of Swiss manufacturing slowed in January, even as the frail Eurozone showed an unexpected improvement. Today’s economic data shows a decline in Swiss exports in December, with real exports falling by 1.6%, primarily attributed to waning demand as well as a still-too-strong Swiss Franc.

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi warned markets today over the strengthening of the Yen as the USDJPY trades dangerously near 76.00. Azumi said that the current environment of low interest rates in the U.S. is pushing speculators to short the USDJPY. He said that the rise in the Yen was one sided and he is ready to take decisive steps to stop the rise. He stressed once again that the strengthening Yen does not match the fundamentals of the Japanese economy. Azumi said, “I will closely watch market movement and take appropriate action. There is no change in my stance. If there is one-sided movement, I will take decisive steps.” Despite his comments, the USDJPY was unchanged and trading as low as 76.18 at the time of writing this report.

The U.S. government will later today release data for January’s non-farms payroll sector. The ADP report released on Wednesday showed that 170,000 new jobs were created against expectations of 185,000 and a marked decline from 325,000 in December. Given that, analysts are expecting that the Bureau of Labor’s official data will show an increase of 150,000 new jobs for the month, down from 200,000 in December. Economists have said that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of recovery but the fact that the ADP numbers didn’t meet expectations could be enough to cast doubt on today’s outcome.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that January’s non-farms payroll data showed the creation of 243,000 new jobs. Analysts polled ahead of the release were forecasting an increase of only 150,000 new jobs. December’s data was revised to 203,000 new jobs. Notably, the unemployment rate fell again, this time to 8.3%, even as analysts’ expectations called for the rate to remain unchanged.

Wall Street rallied on the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report which showed that 243K jobs were created in the month of January. The unemployment rate dropped to lowest level in 3 years at 8.3%. The data beat analyst expectations and boosted U.S. Dollar bulls and stock markets. The December data was also revised up to 203k from the initial 200k reported. The economy also added jobs in almost every sector such as professional services, retail, health care, restaurants further highlighting that the recovery is not specific to one sector. President Obama’s administration cheered the news as positive job growth increases Obama’s chances of winning the Presidential elections.

Currencies still remain well supported on dips heading into the latter half of the week and the Euro still could head higher towards our objective by the 100-Day SMA at 1.3355. The key level to watch over the coming session comes in by 1.3235, and a break above should accelerate gains. For now, we are still waiting for additional details and the finalization of the Greek PSI deal, and any actualization of the agreement over the coming sessions could act as the catalyst for the next push in the major towards 1.3355. Other factors which come into play over the coming days are the Fed Chair Bernanke testimony and the all important US Non-farm payroll report due out on Friday.

Elsewhere, the commodity currencies continue to outperform, with Aussie rallying up through 1.0750 following the better than expected trade data earlier today. Market participants managed to shrug off the less encouraging Aussie building approvals, and remain intent on buying the higher yielding currency which has correlated so well to exceptional global equity performance. Other markets worth keeping an eye on are EUR/CHF which trades just over the critical 1.2000 SNB floor and USD/JPY which threatens a retest of the record lows from October at 75.55. The Japanese FinMin was on the wires overnight warning that firm measures will be taken and that short term speculative Yen moves will not be ignored. While we see risks for a break of the record lows at 75.55, we would also heed the warnings of Japanese officials and favor looking to buy USD/JPY with additional declines seen limited from here.

EUR/USD

After an unsuccessful test of the neckline, the EUR/USD currency pair has been corrected to the resistance line. One can consider selling Euro with the tight stop at the current prices. The closest target of the fall is the level of 1.3000, the next one is the test of the support level in the area of 1.2880. If the price returns to the broken trend’s line at the RSI, it will be an additional signal to sell the pair.

USD/CHF

Franc also tried to test local minimums. At the moment the RSI indicator was supported by the trend’s rising line at the RSI. The closest target of the growth is the descending channel’s upper border. At the RSI the resistance line is at the level of 70. One can consider buying the USD/CHF currency pair with the tight stop. If the price reaches new minimums, this case scenario will be cancelled.

CAD/JPY

At the H4 chart of the CAD/JPY currency pair we can see the formation of the rising pattern with the target in the area of 78.10. At the moment the price is testing the trend’s rising line, one can consider buying the pair with the tight stop. The test of the trend’s rising line at the RSI is an additional signal to buy the pair. If the price breaks the trend’s line, this case scenario will be cancelled and we should expect the start of the descending trend.

Thepair EUR/USD is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market onThursday morning. By 8.30 MSK the Euro is at 1.3176 againstyesterday’s closing level of 1.3150.

Market derives positive sentiment frommacro-statistics, in particular from the data on industrial output in the U.S.and China. In addition, investors expect positive solutions of talks betweenGreece and private capital- the issue of the coupon rate has not been settledyet, although time is running out.

Today in the afternoon investors’attention will be drawn to the U.S. labour market.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not gobeyond the range of 1.3090-1.3210 at the trading session on Thursday.

A.D.P. reported United States (U.S.) private sector employers added 170,000 positions in January. December added a revised 292,000 number of jobs. For January, analysts projected growth of 182,000. Despite this, the past three month (November, December, and January) average calculated to 223,000 a higher monthly average compared to the mean for all of 2011 at 163,000, according to ADP. Some of the largest job additions were in service and goods production sectors at 152,000 and 18,000 respectively. Additionally, manufacturing created an additional 10,000 positions. Small and medium size companies contributed the most of all businesses in additions to the employment numbers. Small business added the most positions at 95,000 while medium sized businesses added 72,000. Larger companies (those employing greater than 499 persons) only added 3,000 new people. The United States Labor Department will release their job figures this Friday. Economists expect unemployment to stay at 8.5% and analysts forecast nonfarm payroll employment numbers will have increased by 125,000 for January.

In other U.S. news, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index increased to 54.1% under analysts’ expectations of 54.5% but higher than December’s 53.1%. The number for January was the highest number in eight months exhibiting growth in manufacturing activity. Additionally, January’s increase was the 30^th consecutive month for increases in the manufacturing sector. Growth in new orders increased 2.8% in January exhibiting 33 consecutive months of increases in new orders. Raw material prices saw an increase for the first time in four months. Manufacturing is beginning the year on the good side with growth in new orders, employment, and production.

Markets were filled with positive sentiment on the economic reports and reports that progress was being made on the Greek debt negotiations. The EURUSD has been in a range this week after failing to break through support at 1.3100. The pair rallied towards resistance at 1.3200 and is testing that level for the third time this week. If the pair breaks above 1.3200, the next level of resistance is seen at 1.3300.

The private sector ADP report showed that 170,000 jobs were created in the month of January. This completes two years of job gains mostly led by small businesses and the services sector. Overall the labor market is on the path of recovery according to economists who see the creation of jobs and the drop in unemployment claims going hand in hand to ease the labor crisis. The ADP report showed that 95,000 jobs were created at small businesses, medium sized businesses added 72,000 jobs and large businesses added 3,000 jobs. This Friday, we will see release of the government Non Farm Payroll report for January.

The Aussie Dollar gained against the U.S. Dollar after the release of positive economic reports from Australia. Australian trade surplus increased to 1.7 billion Australian dollars in December. This was much higher than analyst expectations of a surplus of 1.2 billion Australian dollars. In November, the trade surplus printed at 1.3 billion Australian dollars.

The pair EUR/USD started February with sales at the Forex currency market on Wednesday morning.By 9.30 MSK the Euro is at 1.3066 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3078.

Weak American statistics released yesterday has caused deterioration of players' sentiments, as well as prolonged negotiations between Greece and private capital, which logically, should have been completed on 31 January, at the latest. There is no actual output of the meeting yet, and it upsets investors.

In this connection, there is an increasing chance of new surge of sales of the major pair with the first stop at 1.30.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2990-1.3090 at the trading session on Wednesday.

DOLLAR INDEX

Dollar Index fell much lower than we expected. However, the RSI indicator was supported by the trend’s rising line, we should expect it to rebound from the line and start moving upwards with the target in the area of 84.40. If the price breaks the trend’s line at the RSI, this case scenario will be cancelled.

EUR/USD

Yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair tested the broken neckline, one can consider selling Euro at the current prices. The target of the fall is the area of 1.10. The test of the trend’s descending line at the RSI is an additional signal to sell Euro, we should expect the indicator to fall down, at least, into the area of 30. In order to enter the market one should take a look at the shorter timeframes.



At the H4 chart of the pair we have “head & shoulders” reversal pattern forming with the target in the area of 1.2919. Currently the price is forming “right shoulder”, one can consider aggressive sales with the stop above 1.3205 and increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 1.3060. If the price breaks the local maximum, this case scenario will be cancelled.

GBP/USD

In case of Pound we should also expect the price to fall down, to the support level in the area of 1.5650. The test of the trend’s descending line at the RSI is a good signal to sell the pair. We recommend you to increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the channel’s lower border.

USD/CHF

Franc also continues falling down inside the descending channel, at the moment one can consider buying the pair with the tight stop. The broken trend line at the RSI is a signal to buy the pair. The target of the growth is the channel’s upper border in the area of 0.9272. If the price continues falling down, this case scenario will be cancelled.

European markets benefited from the European Union (E.U.) summit release about the new pact that will enforce tougher fiscal policies and oversight on participating countries. Additionally borrowing costs lowered in the region. The fiscal pact lessened selling pressures for Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bonds. Italy’s ten year bond yield reduced to 6.05% while Spain’s lowered to 4.83% and Portugal’s decreased to 16.7%.

 Additional data provides a gloomier outlook. Unemployment in 17 of the European countries rose to 10.0% last month with a similar rate revised for the prior month. Greece reported they made prominent strides in coming to necessary agreements with their private bond holders to reduce the country’s borrowing cost. Still needing completion are the required additional spending cuts of €2 billion (1.0% of gross domestic product) in health and defense areas as well as the lowering of minimum wage. The labor minister George Koutroumanis argues against the wage decrease with the concern it would lower output, harm the poor, and deepen the country’s recession. Yet, officials expect the change to be implemented arguing it would improve job competitiveness. Fear across the Eurozone is palpable as reduced demand has been developing across the region, promoting the likelihood of recession throughout the zone. The Greek Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos reported he expects the country to finalize agreements with their lenders about the €200 billion debt restructuring by the end of this week.

 The United States (U.S.) reported that consumer confidence fell in January. The Conference Board’s confidence index lowered to 61.1 resulting less than analysts had projected of an increase to 68.0. Consumer confidence was revised up for December to 64.8 from 64.5.

The EURUSD came under selling pressure after it hit support at 1.3200. The pair declined over 150 pips on today’s trading and fell below support at 1.3100. The negative sentiment came from Wall Street where consumer confidence lead to the decline in U.S. indices. If the EURUSD closes below 1.3100, the next level of support is seen at 1.3000.

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly downward on Wednesday in response to mixed investors' sentiments at the global capital markets.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and has come to the positive area; however trades are sluggish and along the line, there is no clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to come out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5730, the pair will go to 1.5720 and 1.5690. A chance is high that the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Presently, mixed sentiments in the market prevents the Pound to go upward, as investors questioned vital capacity of Greece, as well as lack of reasons for recessions in Eurozone. According to British Prime Minister Cameron, as long as EU authorities do not take energetic measures to implement anti-crisis program, there is no point to raise the issue of increasing IMF reserves. Therefore, Britain maintains tough stance in regards to the debt situation in Eurozone. Cameron thinks that Germany shall act faster and with more confidence.

Macro-economic situation is stable at the beginning of February. Labour sector remains in the difficult position: unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Similar situation is in the retail sector as well. Buyers failed to keep retailers happy in January: following the rise in volumes of sales in December, retail sale fell by 22% in January against +9 in December. This has been the lowest value since March 2009. Outlook in the retail sector is not too optimistic. Thus, companies in this sector can go to three-year lows again in February, as volumes of orders have declined once again.

It became known today that consumer confidence index GfK rose to -29 points in January against the level of -33 points in December. This is the record index since summer 2011 and is definitely very positive. According to the head of the Bank of England Mr. King, decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.

Wall Street is poised to end the last day in January in the Red. Wall Street indices were down after the Conference Board reported that its gauge of consumer confidence fell in January. The confidence index fell to 61.1 in January from 64.8 in December. Consumer confidence dropped as sentiment on business conditions and employment declined from the previous two months. In another report, the S&P Case Shiller index reported that home price index dropped 1.3%. For the year, the index measured a 3.7% drop in home prices.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair tested the neckline, we should expect it to rebound from the line and start moving downwards. The test of the trend’s descending line at the RSI is an additional signal to sell the pair. The closest support is the test of the area of 30 at the RSI.



At the H4 chart of the pair we should also expect the price to test the area of 1.3000. One can consider selling the pair with the tight stop above 1.3205. After the price breaks the trend’s rising line, we should expect the test of the support level in the area of 1.2675.

GBP/USD

At the daily chart of the GBP/USD currency pair the RSI indicator faced the resistance from the trend’s descending line, we should expect it to rebound from the line and start falling down. The target of the fall is the area of 1.5365. In order to start opening short positions, one should wait until the reversal patterns appear at shorter time frames.



At the H4 chart Pound has reached all the targets of the rising pattern. Currently the price is testing the rising channel’s lower border, and one can consider selling the pair with the tight stop after the price breaks it. The target of the fall is the area of 1.5485. The stop must be placed above 1.5745.

NZD/USD

Despite our expectations New Zealand Dollar continues reaching new local maximums. By now the pair has reached the resistance level in the area of 0.8225, which is expected to be a starting point of the correction and the descending movement as well. The target of the fall is the test of the rising trend’s line in the area of 0.7870.



At the H4 chart of the pair we can see the formation of the rising symmetrical pattern with the target in the area of 0.8344. At the moment we should expect the test of the area of 0.7837, where one can consider buying the pair with the tight stop. One can try to sell the NZD/USD currency pair from the current levels with the stop above 0.8245.

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly upward on Tuesday, still staying in the three-day trading range of 1.5640-1.5740.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is traded in the negative area and is going up while volumes are increasing; it is giving a buy signal and is prepared to break signal line from bottom to top. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5735, the pair will go to 1.5740 and 1.5760.

It became known today that consumer confidence index GfK rose to -29 points in January against the level of -33points in December. This is the record index since summer 2011 and is definitely very positive.

British Prime Minister Cameron believes that as long as EU authorities do not take energetic measures to implementanti-crisis program, there is no point to raise the issue of increasing IMF reserves. Therefore, Britain maintains tough stance in regards to the debt situation in Eurozone. Cameron thinks that Germany shall act faster and with more confidence.

According to the head of the Bank of England Mr. King, decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.

Unemployment continues to thrive in Britain. According to estimates, unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Similar situation is in the retail sector as well. Buyers failed to keep retailers happy in January: following the rise in volumes of sales in December, retail sale fell by 22% in January against +9 in December. This has been the lowest value since March2009. Outlook in the retail sector is not too optimistic. Thus, companies in this sector can go to three-year lows again in February, as volumes of orders have declined once again.

The pair EUR/USD is traded in the black at the Forex currency market on Tuesday morning. By 9.25 MSK the Euro is at 1.3186 againstyesterday's closing level of 1.3128.

There were a number of reasons for the positive sentiment in the market: first of all Greek Prime Minister gave tounder stand that some progress has been achieved in the course of negotiations between private capital and Greece; secondly, a good piece of news came from the EU summit in Brussels where the launch of ESM Fund has been approved.

Therefore, new fund will be operational from1 July 2012, a year earlier than it has been planned, its volume will amount to500 billion euro and 80 billion euro of equity. At the same time, politiciansdo not rule out a chance that ESM can be expanded in the future.

In general, positive sentiment is coming back in the market.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not gobeyond the range of 1.3120-1.3230 at the trading session on Tuesday.

The United States (U.S.) Commerce department reported consumer incomes grew at the fastest pace in December compared to the previous eight months. Americans increased savings rather than spending the additional income. Personal income grew at 0.5% rate better than the 0.4% economists had projected. The savings rate grew to 4.0%. Yet, overall consumer spending for the month saw no change, resulting worse than analysts had projected at 0.1%. The savings rate for the month is the highest seen since August 2011. On average, the final quarter ending December 2011 for income only slightly increased. In the quarter, consumer spending increased by a 2.0% annual pace.

Unemployment remains high in the country while state and local government spending has decreased for six consecutive quarters. Analysts project that unemployment increased to 8.6% in December. Additionally, housing prices continue to lower. These things combined are leaving Americans feeling financially thin.

Yet, the labor market exhibited signs of improvement in the later part of the year (2011) and in addition to improving consumer incomes, these factors should result in the additional jobs. The Federal Reserve expects unemployment to lower to 8.2%-8.5% at the end of 2012. Consequently, increased employment will result in higher incomes and increased spending.

The price index for personal consumption, which measures inflation, raised only 0.1% in the month of December compared to the previous month although on an annualized basis increased 2.4% compared to the previous year. This was greater than the Fed’s targeted 2.0% goal but lower than the previous registered year increase of 2.9% in September. The Fed projects annual inflation will be within 1.4%-1.8% this year (2012).

The EURUSD ignored the US data and reacted mostly to European fears. With the EU summit under way markets were down on negative sentiment. The EURUSD dropped 130 pips with further downside to be expected in the coming days.

The EU summit and Greek debt negotiations filled Wall Street with worries and the Dow is down 85 points, the Nasdaq is down 10 points and the S&P 500 is down 9 points at the time of writing this report. Traders on Open Book are primarily short on the Dow (DJ30) with average limits at 12,450 and stops at 12,750.

Early this morning, the GfK Group released its key consumer confidence index for January, which is a gauge of confidence levels for the U.K.’s economic activity among the 2000 respondents. The reading improved to -29 from -33, beating analysts’ forecast of -32 yet far off the May “peak” of -21. The managing director of the group which conducts the survey on behalf of the E.U. Commission said that the improvement was somewhat surprising given the decline in U.K. GDP and the strong possibility that the economy is on the verge of another recession. However, he points to a decline in inflation and the recent lowering of energy prices as offering some hope to consumers.

EUR/USD

The EUR/US currency pair rebounded from the resistance level. At the moment we should expect the price to fall down into the area of 1.2950. One can consider selling the pair with the tight stop. If the price breaks the trend’s line at the RSI, we should expect Euro to fall much lower. If the pair breaks the level of 1.3200, this case scenario will be cancelled.

GBP/USD

At the H1 chart of the GBP/USD currency pair we have “head & shoulders” reversal pattern forming with the target in the area of 1.5575. One can consider aggressive sales of Pound from the current levels and increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 1.5655. If the pair grows higher than 1.5735, this case scenario will be cancelled.

USD/CHF

Franc continues moving inside the descending pattern. At the moment we should expect the price to test the channel’s upper border in the area of 0.9320, where one can consider selling the pair with the tight stop. The target of the fall is the area of 0.9133. If the price leaves the channel, this case scenario will be cancelled.